The Future of Near–shoring Books in Trump Presidency V2 

Conventional wisdom in the last two decades led US publishers to outsource large segments of their book printing needs to China. However, geopolitical events such as the pandemic, war, and even climate change, have led the same publishers to reconsider. If that were not enough, the results of the US 2024 election mean that the US is now likely to lean sharply into policies that prioritize national interests over international cooperation. Threats of increased import tariffs are looming. What does all this mean for US publishers?  

Why China? 

The initial decisions to outsource printing to China, passed the sniff test of financial common sense. China had a large pool of highly skilled printers. And despite a production lead time of 4-5 weeks, in addition to a similar shipping time from Shanghai, the landed cost was still attractive because the Chinese labor rates were radically lower than domestic and European printers. The government continued to subsidize the printers and even the 2018 Trump tariffs did little to change the dynamic. In more general terms, technology and the trend towards remote work made international borders seem less important. 

Four-color items like children’s books, cookbooks, and coffee table books with high quality illustrations were right in the Chinese wheelhouse, and it seemed like global outsourcing would continue unabated. 

International Supply Chains Collapse 

That was then. The pandemic caused international supply chains in every industry to collapse. Particularly in publishing. Containers were massively choked up in both Chinese and US ports, and costs and delivery times escalated. When books were finally released at the ports, domestic trucking capacity was constrained and delays intensified. Then, just when supply chains were beginning to recover from Covid, war in Europe and the Middle East caused further challenges to international shipping, especially through the Suez Canal. It was then that the industry began to talk about “supply chain resilience,” and “just-in-time” gave way to “just in case.” The term “near-shoring – moving certain operations, in this case, printing, to nearby countries, was born. 

In truth, the trend to “near-shoring” or “friend-shoring” had been underway for some time. Kinks were beginning to appear in the Chinese economy pre-pandemic. Growth was slowing. And with an aging population, wages were rising, and debt was climbing, as were tensions with the US.  

And distance still matters. The unsustainability of shipping books half-way around the world brought the advantages of more local sources for US publishers into sharp focus. Potentially more friendly partners, to be sure, whose governments were more politically and economically aligned with the US, to reduce geopolitical risks and protect supply chains.  

The Candidates 

So which countries can provide skilled printing resources, at low cost, while at the same time mitigating risk and enhancing “supply chain resilience,” and what products are good candidates for near-shoring? Certainly, domestic printers have both the capacity and capability to continue producing the standard “6×9” products that dominate the trade market. And even though costs are still high and the range of paper options is smaller, domestic suppliers still have the upper hand. 

For color work, the benefits of near-shoring are plentiful, besides proximity to the US. There is already a significant publishing capability and market in Brazil for example, and a vast supply of pulp throughout the sub-continent. Shipping times from Latin America are significantly less and avoid passage through worn-torn routes such as the Suez Canal. In addition, Latin America is culturally similar to the US, with European languages and small time zone differences. Mexico is a signatory to the USMCA (United States Mexico and Canada Agreement), a free-trade agreement that enforces protection of IP rights for all parties. Mexico has a thriving publishing industry too, producing more than 100 million books in 2022. Between 2021 and 2022, shipments of all goods from Mexico to the US increased over 20%, and in 2023, exports to the US amounted to $400bn. Business is booming. The supply chain is no longer a big problem. For now. 

What Happens Now? 

What happens following the re-election of Mr. Trump is anybody’s guess. It is likely that we are witnessing a new model for the global economy as the world separates into trading blocks, and companies look to more regional, friendly, partners for purchased materials. Increased import tariffs are a distinct possibility. Trump may even choose to abandon the USMCA agreement when it is due for renewal in July 2026, especially given that China has deepened its investment in Mexico as a back-door access to the US market.  

The global paper book printing market is growing at a CAGR of about 1%. By contrast, the digital printing market is half its size and growing at a CAGR of 11%. With the emphasis on “America first” tariffs, this may further accelerate the trend to digital printing and POD, where the technology has matured and where domestic suppliers have the edge. This fits nicely with the shorter first runs that publishers want, in a continuing drive to reduce inventories and improve agility.  

To maintain their competitive edge, publishers and printers will need to maintain strong relationships and communicate collaboratively with all trading partners in this environment. They will need to plan long-term, especially with technology where AI and data analytics are taking hold, and where automating robots will replace some repetitive tasks at the printers.  

Trump will likely de-emphasize sustainability efforts such as the SDGs, but in the end of the day, the consumer may demand sustainable products by voting with their wallets. The print supply chain is as much about sustainability as it is about technology, and Trump may lose that battle. 

Although reading habits are driving us to digital, the printed book is still in great demand and will stay that way. Nearshoring is clearly part of the solution there to control costs and to provide supply chain resilience. The direction of the print supply chain is towards lower, more agile, re-purposed inventories, and by responding more quickly to real demand. However digital delivery and digital printing is where the growth is, and that should be good for the domestic publishing industry, and maybe even President Trump V2.